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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the biggest turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest upset.

However this year's field is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions declining and longtime also-rans improving in unison. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and entertaining season, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a typical year!

Where his case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and experience, he trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still