Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
