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On the exact day Donald Trump was presented with a custom-made "peace prize" from his recent friend, FIFA president "Gianni" Infantino, his government published an equally flamboyant security policy document. This fairly short paper is saturated with the essence of Trump and Trumpism. It opens with the characteristically humble claim that the president has brought back "our nation – and the world – back from the edge of disaster and ruin."

Even though the strategy largely formalizes the ongoing policies and statements of Trump and his team, it must be taken as a grave warning for the world, and for the European continent in particular.

A Blueprint of Intervention and Cultural Anxiety

The document advocates for an assertive form of foreign-policy interference where the US explicitly sets the goal of "promoting European greatness." Its rhetoric could have been taken directly from speeches by Viktor Orbán during the much-discussed refugee crisis of 2015-16: "We want Europe to stay European, to regain its cultural self-assurance." Even more ominously, the document states that Europe's "economic decline is eclipsed by the real and more stark prospect of civilizational erasure."

The entire section dedicated to Europe is steeped in generations of European far-right dogma and propaganda. The EU and its migration policies are blamed for "transforming the continent and creating conflict, suppression of free expression and suppression of dissent, cratering birthrates, and erosion of national identities and self-confidence." According to the document, if "current trajectories continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less. As such, it is not at all clear whether some European countries will have economic power and armed forces strong enough to remain reliable allies." Indeed, the Trump administration believes that "within a few decades at the latest, certain NATO members will become majority non-European."

"U.S. foreign policy should continue to champion genuine democracy, freedom of expression, and unapologetic celebrations of European nations’ unique heritage and past."

Core Ideas of the Far Right

These points carry powerful echoes of two theories seen as foundational for contemporary right-wing circles. The first is Oswald Spengler's "Der Untergang des Abendlandes," whose thesis on the inevitable fall of civilizations was used by the German far right to attack the "decadence" and "enfeeblement" of the democratic Weimar Republic. The second is "The Great Replacement," published in 2011 by French novelist Renaud Camus, who transformed long-existing "indigenous" fears into a more explicit conspiratorial narrative, accusing European elites of using immigration to replace restive "native" populations and bring in a more submissive and reliant electorate.

It is the nationalist fantasy encapsulated in both ideas that grants the Trump administration the right, if not the obligation, to interfere in European affairs, the document implies. And it is clear where it sees its allies: "America encourages its ideological partners in Europe to promote this resurgence of spirit, and the increasing influence of patriotic European parties in fact gives cause for significant hope."

The Objective: "Restore European Greatness"

Put simply, the US believes that it is key to its national security to "Make Europe great again," and that the European far right is the only political force that can accomplish this. Consequently, its "overarching strategy for Europe" prioritises "cultivating opposition to Europe’s present path within European nations" – meaning the far right – and "building up the robust nations of central, eastern, and southern Europe" – specifically "aligned countries that want to reclaim their former greatness" – a clear reference to Hungary and Italy.

While the document remains vague on methods, it is apparent that a key aim is to pressure Europe to adopt a sweeping policy on freedom of speech, closer to the US model – especially regarding right-wing speech – and not just on social media. Another is to normalize relations with Russia; or, as the document calls it, to "restore strategic stability with Russia." Although the country is not directly called a future ally, the Trump administration clearly does not regard Russia as an adversary either.

A Historical Blueprint: The Monroe Doctrine

In a wider context, the national security strategy takes its inspiration less from the idealized US of the 1950s and more from the 1823 policy of 1823. Articulated by President James Monroe, this warned European powers not to meddle in the "western hemisphere," which he proclaimed to be the US’s sphere of interest. The Trump administration’s policy document promises to "implement a Trump addition" to the Monroe Doctrine, which involves the US "enlisting" countries worldwide that wish to help protect US national interests.

This is entirely new – recall JD Vance’s address at the 2025 Munich Security Conference, where the vice-president unleashed an assault on Europe’s democratic model. But perhaps now that it is laid out in an formal document, European leaders will at last realize that the situation is grave. And if the document is too lengthy or vague for them, it can be condensed in plain and succinct terms: the current US government believes that its national security is most enhanced by the demise of liberal democracy in Europe. In other words, the US is not just an reluctant ally; it is a deliberate adversary. Now is time to act accordingly.