🔗 Share this article

Just two days prior to the New York race for mayor, Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – not just who would win citywide, and block by block. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, has spent over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become a kind of local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and polling.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win although missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. Lange possesses a talent for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, stretching from one neighborhood to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would triumph by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in readership and the majority of electors leaned toward the independent, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Unexpected Results

What was your night?

I had to do that since they were adding approximately 200K votes into the system frequently! I felt somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani was ahead the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but there were two big batches of ballots added after that and his lead went from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world where yesterday went kind of poorly for Mamdani, where the opponent would have essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. But the winner gained half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he succeeded. He campaigned and greatly broadened his support from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani get additional support from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Plus he further maximized his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, young, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also a number of supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, confined to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Muslims. Electors in immigrant strongholds that went for the former president previously went for the progressive now. But it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Effects

One of the big stories of the night was the record turnout. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured it could exceed 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a lot of darn voters. Existed a substantial opposition group, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to surpass 50%. He has just over 50% but there’s still probably 200K ballots uncounted at that time. Thus it’s not certain, but I think it’s likely, and I hope he does because afterwards none can claim Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any area. Including Tottenville in the borough, which is like an 88% Trump neighborhood. That truly surprised me. The independent held Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained all of these conservatives on the island who had a strong turnout. I believe there was a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened prior to Trump endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome unless the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your much mentioned “commie corridor” – did backing for the candidate dominant in those areas of the boroughs?

I think existed some weakening of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents all went for the independent. Thus there was some opposition. But no, mostly the leftist base is a key factor why Zohran won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

Prior to the vote we reported on whether the candidate was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance definitely mattered there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored the independent. And also, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, they were strongly Cuomo. Therefore it’s unclear if there were major surprises here, but he retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city represents in politics? Will commie corridor serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from progressives hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

But I think that every city in the US could develop their own commie corridor. Urban places are the centers of progressive influence in the nation – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities we face.