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At first, the former US president appeared to embrace a strong position on Ukraine. Following issuing warnings of "severe consequences" during the summer if Russia's president persisted obstructing ceasefire talks, he eventually introduced considerable restrictions on Russia's biggest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action seriously affected Putin's capacity to finance his aggression in the region.

Yet, with his latest comprehensive peace plan for Ukraine, reportedly created by both nations' representatives lacking Ukraine's or EU involvement, the former president has seemingly gone back to his pro-Putin position.

Rewarding Military Action

The former president's plan would in practice favor the Russian leader for attacking a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's political freedom in peril. Despite strong declarations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be upheld", significant aspects of the initiative in reality weaken that essential independence. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Reflecting his real-estate experience, the former president continues to view the Ukrainian conflict as a mere territorial dispute, implying handing Putin a section of Ukrainian soil will satisfy the president. However, Putin's military campaign is not simply about controlling a damaged swath of deindustrialized area in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's democracy – and the Russian leader's clear intention to destroy it so it no longer serves as an attractive model for the Russia's population of the democratic governance that Putin's growing autocracy prevents them.

Border Surrenders

Although keeping in position the already divided Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's plan would compel Ukraine to give up the whole Donetsk province. Beyond favoring the Russian Federation with area that its forces have been unable to seize in over a lengthy period of warfare, this concession would make Ukraine's military defenses dangerously compromised.

The area is the site of the nation's highly-touted "stronghold system", the well-established protective structures that represent a essential impediment to invading forces. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these fortifications, leaving Russian forces a unobstructed route to the capital should he later choose to resume the conflict.

Armed Forces Reductions

Then, in a move that would make renewed conflict more feasible for Russia, Trump would mandate the nation to reduce the scale of its troops from their existing large number personnel to a maximum of 600,000. Importantly, the plan sets no such limits on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Russia's attempts to portray Ukraine's legitimate government as extremists, the plan states: "Any Nazi doctrine and activities must be opposed and banned." Seemingly to underscore this point, it insists that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a peace deal. However, Trump places no obligation that the Russian leader risk his authoritarian rule by allowing democratic processes in Russia.

Protection Assurances

Certainly, the initiative has the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade other states" and to "incorporate in regulation its position of non-aggression towards the EU and Ukraine". However considering that Putin has breached similar agreements in the past – for example the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to honor Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for giving up its historical nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia agreed to a halt in fighting and a return of captured land in the Donbas to the government – why should we trust this commitment on this occasion?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on international protection assurances. Although the initiative promises a "immediate joint defense action" in case Russia resume its military campaign, and includes that "The nation will receive strong security guarantees", the particulars vary from vague to troubling. The proposal would not only prevent Ukraine Nato membership but also prevent Nato members from positioning forces on Ukrainian territory, thereby blocking the security presence, presumptively led by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to deter Putin from rebuilding his reduced forces, rearming, and reinvading.

Global Response

A separate parallel deal apparently would offer Ukraine with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any subsequent "major, planned, and continuous aggression" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "will be treated as an attack endangering the tranquility of the Western nations." That suggests a military response. However unlike a strong national defense – Ukraine's best defense against renewed Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would hinge on the commitment of Western powers, like the US administration, to respond militarily to Russia's hostilities, a response they have {not